Last Thursday, a study in Science predicted that if global carbon emissions continue on their current “business-as-usual” trajectory, climate change will extinguish one-sixth of the species on earth. The figure comes with the usual caveats, which you can read about here and here. As a rough estimate of what lies ahead, though, the study is useful—and sobering.
Unfortunately, it’s also business as usual. While the one-in-six figure is especially startling, the major journals publish new findings about the current or predicted effects of climate change almost every week. The news is rarely good; as a journalist who writes about climate, my headline choices sometimes seem limited to It’s Gonna Be Really Bad and It’s Already Worse Than We Thought. These stories are important—don’t get me wrong—but their beat is so steady, and so unsettling, that I can’t blame readers for tuning them out. (Honestly, sometimes I wish I could tune myself out.) So let me use this space to tell you about a different kind of study, and a different kind of headline.